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Evidence, Review and Learning

Research & Review

Historical research tests the framework. Weekly Review tests prior judgments in public and preserves both correct calls and mistakes.

Data through the September 4, 2026 regular-session close

Latest Research

Can market breadth tell us whether a QQQ retest will hold?

Across 63 completed cycles, 57.1% held. Eight of 11 previously defined current-like cases held, but machine learning did not beat the overall baseline.

Investor application

Use breadth as a market-state filter, not a universal prediction machine. The current structure offers conditional support, but it cannot replace price confirmation.

Read the full research note →

Track Record

Partially confirmed

Previous view
High-volatility consolidation; repair required confirmation
What was right
Correctly identified AI earnings and macro data as the week's central tests.
What was underestimated
Underestimated hawkish policy repricing and the breadth damage caused by liquidity concentrating in mega-caps.
View all Weekly Reviews →

Existing Content Map

Research, Review and Historical Record

Weekly Review

Compares prior expectations with actual outcomes and preserves the public record.

Market Focus

Explains whether an important event changes the market view.

Archive

Finds historical analysis by time and section without overwriting old judgments.

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